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Arda Kardzhali vs Beroe — First League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Beroe
Beroe
10/4/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Arda Kardzhali47%
×Draw26%
Beroe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.46
Beroe
1.02

Arda Kardzhali creates 43% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 138 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
74%
Arda Kardzhali or Beroe
74%
Draw or Beroe
53%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
23%
Beroe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
77%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
43%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
18%
Beroe 1+ goals
64%
Beroe 2+ goals
27%
Beroe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
64%
Beroe (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Beroe attack 0.93 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
47%
level
26%
Beroe scores more
26%

Arda Kardzhali at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arda Kardzhali vs Beroe

Arda Kardzhali and Beroe drew 1-1 in First League on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Arda in Kardzhali.