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Beroe II vs Spartak Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Beroe II
Beroe II
FT
1 – 3
Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
9/10/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 6Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beroe II30%
×Draw24%
Spartak Plovdiv46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe II
1.32
Spartak Plovdiv
1.70

Spartak Plovdiv creates 29% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 92 away

creates per match

Beroe II
1.22
Spartak Plovdiv
1.62

allows per match

Beroe II
1.78
Spartak Plovdiv
1.42

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par
Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw
54%
Beroe II or Spartak Plovdiv
76%
Draw or Spartak Plovdiv
70%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+
13%
Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals
73%
Beroe II 2+ goals
38%
Beroe II 3+ goals
15%
Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
82%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
51%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)
39%
Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beroe II scores more
30%
level
24%
Spartak Plovdiv scores more
46%

Spartak Plovdiv at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Beroe II 1–3 Spartak Plovdiv

Spartak Plovdiv beat Beroe II 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Stara Zagora.