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Beroe II vs Sayana Haskovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Beroe II
Beroe II
FT
1 – 3
Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
11/19/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 18Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beroe II31%
×Draw24%
Sayana Haskovo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe II
1.29
Sayana Haskovo
1.61

Sayana Haskovo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 92 away

creates per match

Beroe II
1.22
Sayana Haskovo
1.45

allows per match

Beroe II
1.78
Sayana Haskovo
1.37

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par
Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Sayana Haskovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw
55%
Beroe II or Sayana Haskovo
76%
Draw or Sayana Haskovo
69%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+
13%
Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals
72%
Beroe II 2+ goals
37%
Beroe II 3+ goals
14%
Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
80%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
48%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)
41%
Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Sayana Haskovo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Sayana Haskovo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sayana Haskovo attack 1.45 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beroe II scores more
31%
level
24%
Sayana Haskovo scores more
45%

Sayana Haskovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beroe II vs Sayana Haskovo

Sayana Haskovo beat Beroe II 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Stara Zagora.