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Beroe II vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Beroe II
Beroe II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
4/16/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 27Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beroe II37%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe II
1.44
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 92 away

creates per match

Beroe II
1.22
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Beroe II
1.78
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw
62%
Beroe II or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
63%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+
17%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals
76%
Beroe II 2+ goals
42%
Beroe II 3+ goals
18%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
43%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)
49%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beroe II scores more
37%
level
25%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
38%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beroe II vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II beat Beroe II 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Stara Zagora.