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Beroe II vs FK Sliven — Third League - Southeast 2018

Beroe II
Beroe II
FT
8 – 0
FK Sliven
FK Sliven
5/10/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 34Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Beroe II63%
×Draw18%
FK Sliven19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe II
2.57
FK Sliven
1.36

Beroe II creates 89% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 38 away

creates per match

Beroe II
1.22
FK Sliven
0.95

allows per match

Beroe II
1.78
FK Sliven
3.92

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par
FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

FK Sliven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw
81%
Beroe II or FK Sliven
82%
Draw or FK Sliven
37%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+
42%
FK Sliven wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals
92%
Beroe II 2+ goals
72%
Beroe II 3+ goals
47%
FK Sliven 1+ goals
74%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
39%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)
77%
FK Sliven (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.57

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Beroe II scores more
63%
level
18%
FK Sliven scores more
19%

Beroe II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Beroe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Beroe II 8–0 FK Sliven

Beroe II beat FK Sliven 8-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Stara Zagora.