Beroe II 0–3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Beroe II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

6/3/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 38Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beroe II23%

×Draw23%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beroe IIExpected goals in this matchChernomorets 1919 Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.80

Beroe II

1.08

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.80

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 67% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 99 away

1.22

creates per match

1.82

1.78

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Beroe II

1.22

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.82

allows per match

Beroe II

1.78

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw

46%

Beroe II or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

77%

Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

77%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+

8%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals

66%

Beroe II 2+ goals

29%

Beroe II 3+ goals

10%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

83%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

54%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)

30%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.95 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.82 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Beroe II scores more

23%

level

23%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

54%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff