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Beroe II vs Atletik Kuklen — Third League - Southeast 2018

Beroe II
Beroe II
FT
3 – 1
Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
10/30/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 13Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beroe II45%
×Draw24%
Atletik Kuklen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe II
1.71
Atletik Kuklen
1.39

Beroe II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 135 away

creates per match

Beroe II
1.22
Atletik Kuklen
1.00

allows per match

Beroe II
1.78
Atletik Kuklen
2.21

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par
Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Atletik Kuklen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw
69%
Beroe II or Atletik Kuklen
76%
Draw or Atletik Kuklen
55%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+
24%
Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals
82%
Beroe II 2+ goals
51%
Beroe II 3+ goals
24%
Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
75%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
40%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)
59%
Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beroe II scores more
45%
level
24%
Atletik Kuklen scores more
31%

Beroe II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Beroe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Beroe II 3–1 Atletik Kuklen

Beroe II beat Atletik Kuklen 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Stara Zagora.