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Atletik Kuklen vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Beroe II
Beroe II
12/2/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 19Stadion Kuklen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Atletik Kuklen63%
×Draw20%
Beroe II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletik Kuklen
2.12
Beroe II
0.98

Atletik Kuklen creates 116% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 55 away

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.46
Beroe II
0.76

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.21
Beroe II
2.78

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par
Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Beroe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw
83%
Atletik Kuklen or Beroe II
80%
Draw or Beroe II
37%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
40%
Beroe II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
88%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
62%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
35%
Beroe II 1+ goals
62%
Beroe II 2+ goals
26%
Beroe II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
79%
Beroe II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.12

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more
63%
level
20%
Beroe II scores more
17%

Atletik Kuklen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletik Kuklen 3 – 2 Beroe II

Atletik Kuklen beat Beroe II 3-2 in Third League - Southeast on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kuklen in Kuklen.