Bergisch Gladbach 1–1 Union Schafhausen

Bergisch Gladbach

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Union Schafhausen

9/20/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 5BELKAW-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach69%

×Draw17%

Union Schafhausen14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bergisch GladbachExpected goals in this matchUnion Schafhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.06

Bergisch Gladbach

2.57

Union Schafhausen

1.06

Bergisch Gladbach creates 142% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 29 away

2.52

creates per match

0.97

1.16

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach

2.52

Union Schafhausen

0.97

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach

1.16

Union Schafhausen

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

Union Schafhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw

86%

Bergisch Gladbach or Union Schafhausen

83%

Draw or Union Schafhausen

31%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+

48%

Union Schafhausen wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals

92%

Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals

72%

Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals

47%

Union Schafhausen 1+ goals

65%

Union Schafhausen 2+ goals

29%

Union Schafhausen 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)

83%

Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.57

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more

69%

level

17%

Union Schafhausen scores more

14%

Bergisch Gladbach at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff