Bergisch Gladbach 1–5 TuS BW Königsdorf

Bergisch Gladbach

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

TuS BW Königsdorf

10/27/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 10BELKAW-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach58%

×Draw20%

TuS BW Königsdorf22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bergisch GladbachExpected goals in this matchTuS BW Königsdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.32

Bergisch Gladbach

2.22

TuS BW Königsdorf

1.32

Bergisch Gladbach creates 68% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 60 away

2.52

creates per match

1.48

1.16

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach

2.52

TuS BW Königsdorf

1.48

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach

1.16

TuS BW Königsdorf

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

TuS BW Königsdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw

78%

Bergisch Gladbach or TuS BW Königsdorf

80%

Draw or TuS BW Königsdorf

42%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+

36%

TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals

89%

Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals

65%

Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals

38%

TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals

73%

TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals

38%

TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)

72%

TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

TuS BW Königsdorf away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.22

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 1.48 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more

58%

level

20%

TuS BW Königsdorf scores more

22%

Bergisch Gladbach at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff