Bergisch Gladbach 3–1 Siegburger SV: Result & Stats

Bergisch Gladbach

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Siegburger SV

2/25/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 19Krüger Group Jugendsportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach50%

×Draw22%

Siegburger SV29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bergisch GladbachExpected goals in this matchSiegburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.51

Bergisch Gladbach

2.04

Siegburger SV

1.51

Bergisch Gladbach creates 35% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 80 away

2.52

creates per match

1.86

1.16

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach

2.52

Siegburger SV

1.86

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach

1.16

Siegburger SV

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

Siegburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw

71%

Bergisch Gladbach or Siegburger SV

78%

Draw or Siegburger SV

50%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+

29%

Siegburger SV wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals

87%

Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals

60%

Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals

33%

Siegburger SV 1+ goals

78%

Siegburger SV 2+ goals

44%

Siegburger SV 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)

63%

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Siegburger SV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + Siegburger SV defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Siegburger SV attack 1.86 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more

50%

level

22%

Siegburger SV scores more

29%

Bergisch Gladbach at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff