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Bergisch Gladbach vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
5/8/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 29BELKAW-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach58%
×Draw20%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergisch Gladbach
2.26
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.33

Bergisch Gladbach creates 70% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 44 away

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach
2.52
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach
1.16
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.00

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw
78%
Bergisch Gladbach or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
80%
Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
42%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
36%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
89%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
66%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
39%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
74%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
38%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
73%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.26

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more
58%
level
20%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
22%

Bergisch Gladbach at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergisch Gladbach vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

Bergisch Gladbach beat BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 6-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at BELKAW-Arena in Bergisch Gladbach.