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Bergheim W vs Landhaus W — Frauenliga 2019

Bergheim W
Bergheim W
FT
0 – 4
Landhaus W
Landhaus W
9/27/2020FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 3Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bergheim W10%
×Draw16%
Landhaus W75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergheim W
0.80
Landhaus W
2.55

Landhaus W creates 219% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bergheim W
0.98
Landhaus W
3.08

allows per match

Bergheim W
2.02
Landhaus W
0.62

finishing

Bergheim W+0.00on par
Landhaus W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim W ↓

Landhaus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bergheim W or draw
25%
Bergheim W or Landhaus W
84%
Draw or Landhaus W
90%

Winning margin

Bergheim W wins by 2+
3%
Landhaus W wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Bergheim W 1+ goals
55%
Bergheim W 2+ goals
19%
Bergheim W 3+ goals
5%
Landhaus W 1+ goals
92%
Landhaus W 2+ goals
72%
Landhaus W 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Bergheim W (draw refunded)
11%
Landhaus W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim W at home — creates 0.98, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

Landhaus W away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim W attack 0.98 + Landhaus W defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.80

Landhaus W attack 3.08 + Bergheim W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Bergheim W scores more
10%
level
16%
Landhaus W scores more
75%

Landhaus W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Landhaus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergheim W vs Landhaus W

Landhaus W beat Bergheim W 4-0 in Frauenliga on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz FC Bergheim in Bergheim.