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Bergheim W vs Austria Wien W — Frauenliga 2019

Bergheim W
Bergheim W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Austria Wien W
Austria Wien W
4/16/2023FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 12Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bergheim W16%
×Draw20%
Austria Wien W64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergheim W
0.92
Austria Wien W
2.09

Austria Wien W creates 127% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bergheim W
0.98
Austria Wien W
2.16

allows per match

Bergheim W
2.02
Austria Wien W
0.86

finishing

Bergheim W+0.00on par
Austria Wien W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim W ↓

Austria Wien W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bergheim W or draw
36%
Bergheim W or Austria Wien W
80%
Draw or Austria Wien W
84%

Winning margin

Bergheim W wins by 2+
5%
Austria Wien W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Bergheim W 1+ goals
60%
Bergheim W 2+ goals
23%
Bergheim W 3+ goals
7%
Austria Wien W 1+ goals
88%
Austria Wien W 2+ goals
62%
Austria Wien W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Bergheim W (draw refunded)
20%
Austria Wien W (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim W at home — creates 0.98, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

Austria Wien W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim W attack 0.98 + Austria Wien W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Austria Wien W attack 2.16 + Bergheim W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bergheim W scores more
16%
level
20%
Austria Wien W scores more
64%

Austria Wien W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Austria Wien W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergheim W vs Austria Wien W

Bergheim W and Austria Wien W drew 1-1 in Frauenliga on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz FC Bergheim in Bergheim.