Bergheim W 1–2 Altenmarkt W: Result & Stats

Bergheim W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Altenmarkt W

10/22/2022

Frauenliga · Round 7Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bergheim W56%

×Draw20%

Altenmarkt W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bergheim WExpected goals in this matchAltenmarkt W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.46

Bergheim W

2.31

Altenmarkt W

1.46

Bergheim W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 31 away

0.98

creates per match

0.90

2.02

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Bergheim W

0.98

Altenmarkt W

0.90

allows per match

Bergheim W

2.02

Altenmarkt W

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergheim W+0.00on par

Altenmarkt W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim W ↓

Altenmarkt W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bergheim W or draw

76%

Bergheim W or Altenmarkt W

80%

Draw or Altenmarkt W

44%

Winning margin

Bergheim W wins by 2+

35%

Altenmarkt W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bergheim W 1+ goals

90%

Bergheim W 2+ goals

67%

Bergheim W 3+ goals

40%

Altenmarkt W 1+ goals

77%

Altenmarkt W 2+ goals

43%

Altenmarkt W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bergheim W (draw refunded)

70%

Altenmarkt W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim W at home — creates 0.98, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

Altenmarkt W away — creates 0.90, concedes 3.65 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim W attack 0.98 + Altenmarkt W defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.31

Altenmarkt W attack 0.90 + Bergheim W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bergheim W scores more

56%

level

20%

Altenmarkt W scores more

24%

Bergheim W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bergheim W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff