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Bergheim vs ÖTSU Hallein — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Bergheim
Bergheim
CANC
14:00
ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
4/3/2021Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 16Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bergheim29%
×Draw21%
ÖTSU Hallein50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergheim
1.58
ÖTSU Hallein
2.10

ÖTSU Hallein creates 33% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 23 away

creates per match

Bergheim
1.73
ÖTSU Hallein
1.78

allows per match

Bergheim
2.42
ÖTSU Hallein
1.43

finishing

Bergheim+0.00on par
ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim ↓

ÖTSU Hallein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bergheim or draw
50%
Bergheim or ÖTSU Hallein
79%
Draw or ÖTSU Hallein
71%

Winning margin

Bergheim wins by 2+
14%
ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Bergheim 1+ goals
79%
Bergheim 2+ goals
47%
Bergheim 3+ goals
21%
ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
88%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
62%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Bergheim (draw refunded)
37%
ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.42 · 40 matches

ÖTSU Hallein away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim attack 1.73 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.58

ÖTSU Hallein attack 1.78 + Bergheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bergheim scores more
29%
level
21%
ÖTSU Hallein scores more
50%

ÖTSU Hallein at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bergheim host ÖTSU Hallein

April 3, 2021: Bergheim take on ÖTSU Hallein in Landesliga - Salzburg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bergheim host ÖTSU Hallein at Sportplatz FC Bergheim.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.