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Bergheim vs Eugendorf — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Bergheim
Bergheim
FT
2 – 4
Eugendorf
Eugendorf
4/1/2022Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 16Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bergheim28%
×Draw21%
Eugendorf52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergheim
1.57
Eugendorf
2.20

Eugendorf creates 40% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 83 away

creates per match

Bergheim
1.73
Eugendorf
1.98

allows per match

Bergheim
2.42
Eugendorf
1.42

finishing

Bergheim+0.00on par
Eugendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim ↓

Eugendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Bergheim or draw
48%
Bergheim or Eugendorf
79%
Draw or Eugendorf
72%

Winning margin

Bergheim wins by 2+
13%
Eugendorf wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Bergheim 1+ goals
79%
Bergheim 2+ goals
46%
Bergheim 3+ goals
21%
Eugendorf 1+ goals
89%
Eugendorf 2+ goals
64%
Eugendorf 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Bergheim (draw refunded)
35%
Eugendorf (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.42 · 40 matches

Eugendorf away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.42 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim attack 1.73 + Eugendorf defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Eugendorf attack 1.98 + Bergheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bergheim scores more
28%
level
21%
Eugendorf scores more
52%

Eugendorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Eugendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergheim vs Eugendorf

Eugendorf beat Bergheim 4-2 in Landesliga - Salzburg on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz FC Bergheim in Bergheim.