Bergerac 1–1 Versailles: Result & Stats

Bergerac

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Versailles

2/9/2022

Coupe de France · Quarter-finalsStade Francis-Rongiéras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bergerac42%

×Draw25%

Versailles33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BergeracExpected goals in this matchVersailles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.31

Bergerac

1.50

Versailles

1.31

Bergerac creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.88

creates per match

1.88

0.75

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Bergerac

1.88

Versailles

1.88

allows per match

Bergerac

0.75

Versailles

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergerac+0.00on par

Versailles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergerac ↓

Versailles →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bergerac or draw

67%

Bergerac or Versailles

75%

Draw or Versailles

58%

Winning margin

Bergerac wins by 2+

20%

Versailles wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bergerac 1+ goals

78%

Bergerac 2+ goals

44%

Bergerac 3+ goals

19%

Versailles 1+ goals

73%

Versailles 2+ goals

38%

Versailles 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bergerac (draw refunded)

56%

Versailles (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bergerac at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Versailles away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bergerac attack 1.88 + Versailles defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Versailles attack 1.88 + Bergerac defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bergerac scores more

42%

level

25%

Versailles scores more

33%

Bergerac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bergerac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff