Bergerac 1–0 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Bergerac

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Saint Etienne

1/30/2022

Coupe de France · Round of 16Stade Roger Dantou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bergerac35%

×Draw26%

Saint Etienne39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BergeracExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.42

Bergerac

1.32

Saint Etienne

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.88

creates per match

2.08

0.75

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Bergerac

1.88

Saint Etienne

2.08

allows per match

Bergerac

0.75

Saint Etienne

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergerac+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergerac ↓

Saint Etienne →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bergerac or draw

61%

Bergerac or Saint Etienne

74%

Draw or Saint Etienne

65%

Winning margin

Bergerac wins by 2+

15%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bergerac 1+ goals

73%

Bergerac 2+ goals

38%

Bergerac 3+ goals

15%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

76%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

41%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bergerac (draw refunded)

47%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bergerac at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bergerac attack 1.88 + Saint Etienne defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.32

Saint Etienne attack 2.08 + Bergerac defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bergerac scores more

35%

level

26%

Saint Etienne scores more

39%

Saint Etienne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff