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Bergerac vs Libourne — Coupe de France 2018

Bergerac
Bergeracadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Libourne
Libourne
1/7/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade de Campréal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bergerac43%
×Draw23%
Libourne34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergerac
1.77
Libourne
1.54

Bergerac creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bergerac
1.88
Libourne
2.33

allows per match

Bergerac
0.75
Libourne
1.67

finishing

Bergerac+0.00on par
Libourne+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergerac ↓

Libourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bergerac or draw
66%
Bergerac or Libourne
77%
Draw or Libourne
57%

Winning margin

Bergerac wins by 2+
23%
Libourne wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bergerac 1+ goals
83%
Bergerac 2+ goals
53%
Bergerac 3+ goals
26%
Libourne 1+ goals
79%
Libourne 2+ goals
45%
Libourne 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bergerac (draw refunded)
56%
Libourne (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergerac at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Libourne away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergerac attack 1.88 + Libourne defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Libourne attack 2.33 + Bergerac defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bergerac scores more
43%
level
23%
Libourne scores more
34%

Bergerac at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bergerac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergerac vs Libourne

Bergerac beat Libourne 2-1 in Coupe de France on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Campréal in Bergerac.