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Bergdalens W vs Sundsvall W — Elitettan 2021

Bergdalens W
Bergdalens W
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Sundsvall W
Sundsvall W
10/1/2022ElitettanElitettan · Round 22Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bergdalens W37%
×Draw22%
Sundsvall W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergdalens W
1.76
Sundsvall W
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

creates per match

Bergdalens W
1.46
Sundsvall W
1.00

allows per match

Bergdalens W
2.77
Sundsvall W
2.06

finishing

Bergdalens W+0.00on par
Sundsvall W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergdalens W ↓

Sundsvall W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bergdalens W or draw
58%
Bergdalens W or Sundsvall W
78%
Draw or Sundsvall W
63%

Winning margin

Bergdalens W wins by 2+
19%
Sundsvall W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bergdalens W 1+ goals
83%
Bergdalens W 2+ goals
52%
Bergdalens W 3+ goals
26%
Sundsvall W 1+ goals
85%
Sundsvall W 2+ goals
56%
Sundsvall W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Bergdalens W (draw refunded)
47%
Sundsvall W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergdalens W at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

Sundsvall W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergdalens W attack 1.46 + Sundsvall W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.76

Sundsvall W attack 1.00 + Bergdalens W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bergdalens W scores more
37%
level
22%
Sundsvall W scores more
42%

Sundsvall W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sundsvall W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Bergdalens W 2–4 Sundsvall W

Sundsvall W beat Bergdalens W 4-2 in Elitettan on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.