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Bergdalens W vs Lidköping W — Elitettan 2021

Bergdalens W
Bergdalens W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lidköping W
Lidköping W
4/29/2022ElitettanElitettan · Round 5Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bergdalens W31%
×Draw20%
Lidköping W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergdalens W
1.75
Lidköping W
2.22

Lidköping W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

creates per match

Bergdalens W
1.46
Lidköping W
1.67

allows per match

Bergdalens W
2.77
Lidköping W
2.04

finishing

Bergdalens W+0.00on par
Lidköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergdalens W ↓

Lidköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bergdalens W or draw
51%
Bergdalens W or Lidköping W
80%
Draw or Lidköping W
69%

Winning margin

Bergdalens W wins by 2+
15%
Lidköping W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Bergdalens W 1+ goals
83%
Bergdalens W 2+ goals
52%
Bergdalens W 3+ goals
25%
Lidköping W 1+ goals
89%
Lidköping W 2+ goals
65%
Lidköping W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Bergdalens W (draw refunded)
39%
Lidköping W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergdalens W at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

Lidköping W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.04 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergdalens W attack 1.46 + Lidköping W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Lidköping W attack 1.67 + Bergdalens W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bergdalens W scores more
31%
level
20%
Lidköping W scores more
49%

Lidköping W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lidköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergdalens W vs Lidköping W

Lidköping W beat Bergdalens W 3-0 in Elitettan on April 29, 2022.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.