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Bergantiños vs Viveiro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Bergantiños
Bergantiños
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Viveiro
Viveiro
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio As Eiroas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bergantiños52%
×Draw26%
Viveiro22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergantiños
1.52
Viveiro
0.89

Bergantiños creates 71% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 99 away

creates per match

Bergantiños
1.44
Viveiro
0.97

allows per match

Bergantiños
0.80
Viveiro
1.60

finishing

Bergantiños+0.00on par
Viveiro+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergantiños ↓

Viveiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bergantiños or draw
78%
Bergantiños or Viveiro
74%
Draw or Viveiro
48%

Winning margin

Bergantiños wins by 2+
27%
Viveiro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bergantiños 1+ goals
78%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
45%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
20%
Viveiro 1+ goals
59%
Viveiro 2+ goals
22%
Viveiro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bergantiños (draw refunded)
70%
Viveiro (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergantiños at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Viveiro away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergantiños attack 1.44 + Viveiro defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Viveiro attack 0.97 + Bergantiños defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bergantiños scores more
52%
level
26%
Viveiro scores more
22%

Bergantiños at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Bergantiños 3–1 Viveiro

Bergantiños beat Viveiro 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio As Eiroas in Carballo.