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Bergantiños vs Somozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Bergantiños
Bergantiños
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Somozas
Somozas
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio As Eiroas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bergantiños46%
×Draw28%
Somozas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergantiños
1.32
Somozas
0.93

Bergantiños creates 42% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 109 away

creates per match

Bergantiños
1.44
Somozas
1.05

allows per match

Bergantiños
0.80
Somozas
1.20

finishing

Bergantiños+0.00on par
Somozas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergantiños ↓

Somozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bergantiños or draw
74%
Bergantiños or Somozas
72%
Draw or Somozas
54%

Winning margin

Bergantiños wins by 2+
21%
Somozas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bergantiños 1+ goals
73%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
38%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
15%
Somozas 1+ goals
61%
Somozas 2+ goals
24%
Somozas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bergantiños (draw refunded)
63%
Somozas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergantiños at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Somozas away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergantiños attack 1.44 + Somozas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Somozas attack 1.05 + Bergantiños defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bergantiños scores more
46%
level
28%
Somozas scores more
26%

Bergantiños at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Bergantiños 0–1 Somozas

Somozas beat Bergantiños 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio As Eiroas in Carballo.