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Bergantiños vs Silva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Bergantiños
Bergantiños
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Silva
Silva
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio As Eiroas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bergantiños51%
×Draw26%
Silva23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergantiños
1.49
Silva
0.91

Bergantiños creates 64% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bergantiños
1.44
Silva
1.01

allows per match

Bergantiños
0.80
Silva
1.54

finishing

Bergantiños+0.00on par
Silva+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergantiños ↓

Silva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bergantiños or draw
77%
Bergantiños or Silva
74%
Draw or Silva
49%

Winning margin

Bergantiños wins by 2+
26%
Silva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bergantiños 1+ goals
77%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
44%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
19%
Silva 1+ goals
60%
Silva 2+ goals
23%
Silva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bergantiños (draw refunded)
69%
Silva (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergantiños at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Silva away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.54 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergantiños attack 1.44 + Silva defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.49

Silva attack 1.01 + Bergantiños defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bergantiños scores more
51%
level
26%
Silva scores more
23%

Bergantiños at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Bergantiños 1–1 Silva

Bergantiños and Silva drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio As Eiroas in Carballo.