Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bergantiños vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Bergantiños
Bergantiños
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
3/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Estadio As Eiroas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bergantiños45%
×Draw28%
Rápido Bouzas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergantiños
1.33
Rápido Bouzas
0.96

Bergantiños creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

creates per match

Bergantiños
1.44
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Bergantiños
0.80
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Bergantiños+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergantiños ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bergantiños or draw
73%
Bergantiños or Rápido Bouzas
72%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
55%

Winning margin

Bergantiños wins by 2+
21%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bergantiños 1+ goals
74%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
38%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
15%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
62%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
25%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bergantiños (draw refunded)
63%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergantiños at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergantiños attack 1.44 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Bergantiños defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bergantiños scores more
45%
level
28%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
27%

Bergantiños at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Bergantiños 2–0 Rápido Bouzas

Bergantiños beat Rápido Bouzas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio As Eiroas in Carballo.