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Bergantiños vs Pontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Bergantiños
Bergantiños
CANC
22:00
Pontellas
Pontellas
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio As Eiroas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bergantiños62%
×Draw23%
Pontellas15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergantiños
1.73
Pontellas
0.71

Bergantiños creates 144% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bergantiños
1.44
Pontellas
0.61

allows per match

Bergantiños
0.80
Pontellas
2.03

finishing

Bergantiños+0.00on par
Pontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergantiños ↓

Pontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bergantiños or draw
85%
Bergantiños or Pontellas
77%
Draw or Pontellas
38%

Winning margin

Bergantiños wins by 2+
35%
Pontellas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bergantiños 1+ goals
82%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
52%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
25%
Pontellas 1+ goals
51%
Pontellas 2+ goals
16%
Pontellas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bergantiños (draw refunded)
81%
Pontellas (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergantiños at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Pontellas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergantiños attack 1.44 + Pontellas defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.73

Pontellas attack 0.61 + Bergantiños defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bergantiños scores more
62%
level
23%
Pontellas scores more
15%

Bergantiños at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bergantiños face Pontellas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Bergantiños hosting Pontellas. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bergantiños host Pontellas at Estadio As Eiroas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.