Bergantiños 0–3 Estradense: Result & Stats

Bergantiños

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Estradense

11/1/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio As Eiroas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bergantiños46%

×Draw27%

Estradense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BergantiñosExpected goals in this matchEstradense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.02

Bergantiños

1.42

Estradense

1.02

Bergantiños creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 108 away

1.44

creates per match

1.23

0.80

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Bergantiños

1.44

Estradense

1.23

allows per match

Bergantiños

0.80

Estradense

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergantiños+0.00on par

Estradense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergantiños ↓

Estradense →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bergantiños or draw

73%

Bergantiños or Estradense

73%

Draw or Estradense

54%

Winning margin

Bergantiños wins by 2+

22%

Estradense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bergantiños 1+ goals

76%

Bergantiños 2+ goals

41%

Bergantiños 3+ goals

17%

Estradense 1+ goals

64%

Estradense 2+ goals

27%

Estradense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bergantiños (draw refunded)

63%

Estradense (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bergantiños at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Estradense away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bergantiños attack 1.44 + Estradense defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Estradense attack 1.23 + Bergantiños defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bergantiños scores more

46%

level

27%

Estradense scores more

27%

Bergantiños at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff