Bergantiños 0–0 Celta de Vigo III: Result & Stats

Bergantiños

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Celta de Vigo III

2/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Estadio As Eiroas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bergantiños43%

×Draw29%

Celta de Vigo III27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BergantiñosExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.90

Bergantiños

1.21

Celta de Vigo III

0.90

Bergantiños creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

1.44

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Bergantiños

1.44

Celta de Vigo III

1.00

allows per match

Bergantiños

0.80

Celta de Vigo III

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergantiños+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergantiños ↓

Celta de Vigo III →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bergantiños or draw

73%

Bergantiños or Celta de Vigo III

71%

Draw or Celta de Vigo III

57%

Winning margin

Bergantiños wins by 2+

19%

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+

Team goals

Bergantiños 1+ goals

70%

Bergantiños 2+ goals

34%

Bergantiños 3+ goals

12%

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals

59%

Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals

23%

Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bergantiños (draw refunded)

61%

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bergantiños at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Celta de Vigo III away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bergantiños attack 1.44 + Celta de Vigo III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Celta de Vigo III attack 1.00 + Bergantiños defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bergantiños scores more

43%

level

29%

Celta de Vigo III scores more

27%

Bergantiños at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergantiños vs Celta de Vigo III

Bergantiños and Celta de Vigo III drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio As Eiroas in Carballo.

Bergantiños vs Celta de Vigo III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bergantiños vs Celta de Vigo III