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Bergantiños vs As Pontes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Bergantiños
Bergantiños
CANC
00:00
As Pontes
As Pontes
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio As Eiroas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bergantiños58%
×Draw24%
As Pontes17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergantiños
1.64
As Pontes
0.77

Bergantiños creates 113% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bergantiños
1.44
As Pontes
0.74

allows per match

Bergantiños
0.80
As Pontes
1.84

finishing

Bergantiños+0.00on par
As Pontes+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergantiños ↓

As Pontes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bergantiños or draw
83%
Bergantiños or As Pontes
76%
Draw or As Pontes
42%

Winning margin

Bergantiños wins by 2+
32%
As Pontes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bergantiños 1+ goals
81%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
49%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
23%
As Pontes 1+ goals
54%
As Pontes 2+ goals
18%
As Pontes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bergantiños (draw refunded)
77%
As Pontes (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergantiños at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

As Pontes away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergantiños attack 1.44 + As Pontes defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.64

As Pontes attack 0.74 + Bergantiños defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bergantiños scores more
58%
level
24%
As Pontes scores more
17%

Bergantiños at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bergantiños face As Pontes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Bergantiños hosting As Pontes. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bergantiños host As Pontes at Estadio As Eiroas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.