Berga 1–0 Sölvesborg: Result & Stats

Berga

FT

1 – 0

Sölvesborg

8/25/2018

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Round 18Bergavik IP A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Berga51%

×Draw22%

Sölvesborg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BergaExpected goals in this matchSölvesborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.41

Berga

2.00

Sölvesborg

1.41

Berga creates 42% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 34 away

1.78

creates per match

1.59

1.23

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Berga

1.78

Sölvesborg

1.59

allows per match

Berga

1.23

Sölvesborg

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berga+0.00on par

Sölvesborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berga ↓

Sölvesborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Berga or draw

73%

Berga or Sölvesborg

78%

Draw or Sölvesborg

49%

Winning margin

Berga wins by 2+

29%

Sölvesborg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Berga 1+ goals

86%

Berga 2+ goals

59%

Berga 3+ goals

32%

Sölvesborg 1+ goals

76%

Sölvesborg 2+ goals

41%

Sölvesborg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Berga (draw refunded)

65%

Sölvesborg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berga at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.23 · 74 matches

Sölvesborg away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berga attack 1.78 + Sölvesborg defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sölvesborg attack 1.59 + Berga defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Berga scores more

51%

level

22%

Sölvesborg scores more

27%

Berga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Berga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff