Berga 1–1 Oskarshamns AIK: Result & Stats

Berga

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oskarshamns AIK

I. Magnusson 76'

R. Cronvall 90'

4/24/2026

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Berga45%

×Draw25%

Oskarshamns AIK30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BergaExpected goals in this matchOskarshamns AIK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.26

Berga

1.60

Oskarshamns AIK

1.26

Berga creates 27% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 7 away

1.78

creates per match

1.29

1.23

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Berga

1.78

Oskarshamns AIK

1.29

allows per match

Berga

1.23

Oskarshamns AIK

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berga+0.00on par

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berga ↓

Oskarshamns AIK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Berga or draw

70%

Berga or Oskarshamns AIK

75%

Draw or Oskarshamns AIK

55%

Winning margin

Berga wins by 2+

23%

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Berga 1+ goals

80%

Berga 2+ goals

47%

Berga 3+ goals

22%

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

72%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

36%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Berga (draw refunded)

60%

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berga at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.23 · 74 matches

Oskarshamns AIK away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berga attack 1.78 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.60

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.29 + Berga defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Berga scores more

45%

level

25%

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

30%

Berga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Berga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'

I. Magnusson

90'

R. Cronvall

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff