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Berga vs Lödde — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Berga
Berga
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Lödde
Lödde
10/19/2024Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 26Bergavik IP A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Berga50%
×Draw24%
Lödde26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berga
1.73
Lödde
1.19

Berga creates 45% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 13 away

creates per match

Berga
1.78
Lödde
1.15

allows per match

Berga
1.23
Lödde
1.69

finishing

Berga+0.00on par
Lödde+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berga ↓

Lödde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Berga or draw
74%
Berga or Lödde
76%
Draw or Lödde
50%

Winning margin

Berga wins by 2+
27%
Lödde wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Berga 1+ goals
82%
Berga 2+ goals
52%
Berga 3+ goals
25%
Lödde 1+ goals
70%
Lödde 2+ goals
33%
Lödde 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Berga (draw refunded)
65%
Lödde (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berga at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.23 · 74 matches

Lödde away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berga attack 1.78 + Lödde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lödde attack 1.15 + Berga defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Berga scores more
50%
level
24%
Lödde scores more
26%

Berga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Berga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Berga 1–4 Lödde

Lödde beat Berga 4-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Bergavik IP A in Kalmar.