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Berga vs IK Frej — Ettan - Norra 2019

Berga
Berga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
IK Frej
IK Frej
10/7/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 22Bergavik IP A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Berga36%
×Draw22%
IK Frej42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berga
1.67
IK Frej
1.83

IK Frej creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Berga
1.20
IK Frej
1.40

allows per match

Berga
2.27
IK Frej
2.13

finishing

Berga+0.00on par
IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berga ↓

IK Frej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Berga or draw
58%
Berga or IK Frej
78%
Draw or IK Frej
64%

Winning margin

Berga wins by 2+
18%
IK Frej wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Berga 1+ goals
81%
Berga 2+ goals
50%
Berga 3+ goals
23%
IK Frej 1+ goals
84%
IK Frej 2+ goals
54%
IK Frej 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Berga (draw refunded)
46%
IK Frej (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berga at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berga attack 1.20 + IK Frej defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Berga defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Berga scores more
36%
level
22%
IK Frej scores more
42%

IK Frej at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IK Frej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Berga 0 – 1 IK Frej

IK Frej beat Berga 1-0 in Ettan - Norra on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Bergavik IP A in Kalmar.