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Berga vs Ariana — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Berga
Berga
FT
0 – 2
Ariana
Ariana
6/18/2022Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 13Bergavik IP A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Berga34%
×Draw25%
Ariana41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berga
1.35
Ariana
1.50

Ariana creates 11% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 13 away

creates per match

Berga
1.78
Ariana
1.77

allows per match

Berga
1.23
Ariana
0.92

finishing

Berga+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berga ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Berga or draw
59%
Berga or Ariana
75%
Draw or Ariana
66%

Winning margin

Berga wins by 2+
15%
Ariana wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Berga 1+ goals
74%
Berga 2+ goals
39%
Berga 3+ goals
15%
Ariana 1+ goals
78%
Ariana 2+ goals
44%
Ariana 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Berga (draw refunded)
46%
Ariana (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berga at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.23 · 74 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berga attack 1.78 + Ariana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ariana attack 1.77 + Berga defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Berga scores more
34%
level
25%
Ariana scores more
41%

Ariana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berga vs Ariana

Ariana beat Berga 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Bergavik IP A in Kalmar.