Berekum Chelsea 2–1 Liberty Professionals

Berekum Chelsea

FT

2 – 1

Liberty Professionals

4/23/2018

Premier League · Round 9Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Berekum Chelsea53%

×Draw28%

Liberty Professionals19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Berekum ChelseaExpected goals in this matchLiberty Professionals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.69

Berekum Chelsea

1.38

Liberty Professionals

0.69

Berekum Chelsea creates 100% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 34 away

1.32

creates per match

0.79

0.59

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea

1.32

Liberty Professionals

0.79

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea

0.59

Liberty Professionals

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Liberty Professionals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Liberty Professionals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw

81%

Berekum Chelsea or Liberty Professionals

72%

Draw or Liberty Professionals

47%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

26%

Liberty Professionals wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

75%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

40%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

16%

Liberty Professionals 1+ goals

50%

Liberty Professionals 2+ goals

15%

Liberty Professionals 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

74%

Liberty Professionals (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.59 · 111 matches

Liberty Professionals away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Liberty Professionals defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Liberty Professionals attack 0.79 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more

53%

level

28%

Liberty Professionals scores more

19%

Berekum Chelsea at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff