Berekum Chelsea 2–2 Heart of Lions: Result & Stats

Berekum Chelsea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Heart of Lions

6/16/2024

Premier League · Round 34Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Berekum Chelsea51%

×Draw29%

Heart of Lions20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Berekum ChelseaExpected goals in this matchHeart of Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.68

Berekum Chelsea

1.28

Heart of Lions

0.68

Berekum Chelsea creates 88% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 51 away

1.32

creates per match

0.78

0.58

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea

1.32

Heart of Lions

0.78

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea

0.58

Heart of Lions

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Heart of Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Heart of Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw

80%

Berekum Chelsea or Heart of Lions

71%

Draw or Heart of Lions

49%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

24%

Heart of Lions wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

72%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

37%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

14%

Heart of Lions 1+ goals

49%

Heart of Lions 2+ goals

15%

Heart of Lions 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

72%

Heart of Lions (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.58 · 110 matches

Heart of Lions away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Heart of Lions defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Heart of Lions attack 0.78 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more

51%

level

29%

Heart of Lions scores more

20%

Berekum Chelsea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff