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Berekum Chelsea vs Ashanti Gold — Premier League 2019

Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
S. Badu 44' (pen)
12/26/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Berekum Chelsea52%
×Draw28%
Ashanti Gold20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Chelsea
1.34
Ashanti Gold
0.71

Berekum Chelsea creates 89% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 45 away

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea
1.32
Ashanti Gold
0.84

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea
0.59
Ashanti Gold
1.36

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par
Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Ashanti Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw
80%
Berekum Chelsea or Ashanti Gold
72%
Draw or Ashanti Gold
48%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
25%
Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
74%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
39%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
15%
Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
51%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
16%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
72%
Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.59 · 111 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Ashanti Gold defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ashanti Gold attack 0.84 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more
52%
level
28%
Ashanti Gold scores more
20%

Berekum Chelsea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
I. Samed
44'
S. BaduPenalty
65'
C. Appiah← C. Appiah
65'
E. Addai← E. Addai
82'
G. K. Brokelyn← G. K. Brokelyn
82'
A. Adams← A. Adams

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Berekum Chelsea 1–0 Ashanti Gold

Berekum Chelsea beat Ashanti Gold 1-0 in Premier League on December 26, 2021.

Goals: S. Badu (44' pen).

The match was played at Golden City Park in Berekum.