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Berekum Chelsea vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
12/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Berekum Chelsea51%
×Draw29%
Aduana Stars19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Chelsea
1.29
Aduana Stars
0.67

Berekum Chelsea creates 93% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea
1.32
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea
0.58
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw
81%
Berekum Chelsea or Aduana Stars
71%
Draw or Aduana Stars
49%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
24%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
72%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
37%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
14%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
49%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
15%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
73%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.58 · 110 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more
51%
level
29%
Aduana Stars scores more
19%

Berekum Chelsea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Berekum Chelsea 0–0 Aduana Stars

Berekum Chelsea and Aduana Stars drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Golden City Park in Berekum.