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Berço vs Vilaverdense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Berço
Berço
FT
1 – 2
Vilaverdense
Vilaverdense
9/26/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Gémeos Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Berço32%
×Draw21%
Vilaverdense47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berço
1.74
Vilaverdense
2.15

Vilaverdense creates 24% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Berço
1.33
Vilaverdense
2.29

allows per match

Berço
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.14

finishing

Berço+0.00on par
Vilaverdense+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berço ↓

Vilaverdense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Berço or draw
53%
Berço or Vilaverdense
79%
Draw or Vilaverdense
68%

Winning margin

Berço wins by 2+
16%
Vilaverdense wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Berço 1+ goals
82%
Berço 2+ goals
52%
Berço 3+ goals
25%
Vilaverdense 1+ goals
88%
Vilaverdense 2+ goals
63%
Vilaverdense 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Berço (draw refunded)
40%
Vilaverdense (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berço at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Vilaverdense away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berço attack 1.33 + Vilaverdense defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Vilaverdense attack 2.29 + Berço defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Berço scores more
32%
level
21%
Vilaverdense scores more
47%

Vilaverdense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vilaverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Berço 1–2 Vilaverdense

Vilaverdense beat Berço 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Gémeos Castro in Guimarães.