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Berço vs Joane — Taça de Portugal 2018

Berço
Berço
FT
2 – 1
Joane
Joane
9/11/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Gémeos Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Berço39%
×Draw23%
Joane39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berço
1.67
Joane
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Berço
1.33
Joane
1.33

allows per match

Berço
2.00
Joane
2.00

finishing

Berço+0.00on par
Joane+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berço ↓

Joane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Berço or draw
61%
Berço or Joane
77%
Draw or Joane
61%

Winning margin

Berço wins by 2+
19%
Joane wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Berço 1+ goals
81%
Berço 2+ goals
50%
Berço 3+ goals
23%
Joane 1+ goals
81%
Joane 2+ goals
50%
Joane 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Berço (draw refunded)
50%
Joane (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berço at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Joane away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berço attack 1.33 + Joane defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Joane attack 1.33 + Berço defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Berço scores more
39%
level
23%
Joane scores more
39%

Berço at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Berço will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Berço 2 – 1 Joane

Berço beat Joane 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Gémeos Castro in Guimarães.