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Berço vs Belenenses — Taça de Portugal 2018

Berço
Berço
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Belenenses
Belenenses
10/16/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo Gémeos Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Berço27%
×Draw22%
Belenenses51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berço
1.36
Belenenses
1.95

Belenenses creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Berço
1.33
Belenenses
1.90

allows per match

Berço
2.00
Belenenses
1.40

finishing

Berço+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berço ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Berço or draw
49%
Berço or Belenenses
78%
Draw or Belenenses
73%

Winning margin

Berço wins by 2+
12%
Belenenses wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Berço 1+ goals
74%
Berço 2+ goals
39%
Berço 3+ goals
16%
Belenenses 1+ goals
86%
Belenenses 2+ goals
58%
Belenenses 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Berço (draw refunded)
34%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berço at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Belenenses away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berço attack 1.33 + Belenenses defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Belenenses attack 1.90 + Berço defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Berço scores more
27%
level
22%
Belenenses scores more
51%

Belenenses at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berço vs Belenenses

Berço and Belenenses drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Gémeos Castro in Guimarães.