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Berceo vs Villegas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Berceo
Berceo
CANC
00:00
Villegas
Villegas
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 29Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Berceo63%
×Draw20%
Villegas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berceo
2.23
Villegas
1.08

Berceo creates 106% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 46 away

creates per match

Berceo
1.41
Villegas
0.57

allows per match

Berceo
1.60
Villegas
3.04

finishing

Berceo+0.00on par
Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berceo ↓

Villegas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Berceo or draw
83%
Berceo or Villegas
80%
Draw or Villegas
37%

Winning margin

Berceo wins by 2+
40%
Villegas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Berceo 1+ goals
89%
Berceo 2+ goals
65%
Berceo 3+ goals
38%
Villegas 1+ goals
66%
Villegas 2+ goals
29%
Villegas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Berceo (draw refunded)
78%
Villegas (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berceo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berceo attack 1.41 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.23

Villegas attack 0.57 + Berceo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Berceo scores more
63%
level
20%
Villegas scores more
17%

Berceo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Berceo face Villegas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 returns with Berceo hosting Villegas. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Berceo host Villegas at Estadio La Isla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.