Berceo 4–0 Tedeón: Result & Stats

Berceo

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tedeón

5/4/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 33Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Berceo52%

×Draw23%

Tedeón25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BerceoExpected goals in this matchTedeón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.19

Berceo

1.83

Tedeón

1.19

Berceo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 49 away

1.41

creates per match

0.78

1.60

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Berceo

1.41

Tedeón

0.78

allows per match

Berceo

1.60

Tedeón

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berceo+0.00on par

Tedeón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berceo ↓

Tedeón →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Berceo or draw

75%

Berceo or Tedeón

77%

Draw or Tedeón

48%

Winning margin

Berceo wins by 2+

29%

Tedeón wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Berceo 1+ goals

84%

Berceo 2+ goals

54%

Berceo 3+ goals

28%

Tedeón 1+ goals

70%

Tedeón 2+ goals

33%

Tedeón 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Berceo (draw refunded)

68%

Tedeón (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Berceo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

Tedeón away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Berceo attack 1.41 + Tedeón defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tedeón attack 0.78 + Berceo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Berceo scores more

52%

level

23%

Tedeón scores more

25%

Berceo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff