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Berceo vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Berceo
Berceo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
River Ebro
River Ebro
9/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Berceo45%
×Draw24%
River Ebro31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berceo
1.67
River Ebro
1.35

Berceo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 93 away

creates per match

Berceo
1.41
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Berceo
1.60
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Berceo+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berceo ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Berceo or draw
69%
Berceo or River Ebro
76%
Draw or River Ebro
55%

Winning margin

Berceo wins by 2+
23%
River Ebro wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Berceo 1+ goals
81%
Berceo 2+ goals
50%
Berceo 3+ goals
23%
River Ebro 1+ goals
74%
River Ebro 2+ goals
39%
River Ebro 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Berceo (draw refunded)
59%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berceo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berceo attack 1.41 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.67

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Berceo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Berceo scores more
45%
level
24%
River Ebro scores more
31%

Berceo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Berceo 2–1 River Ebro

Berceo beat River Ebro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Isla in Logroño.