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Berceo vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Berceo
Berceo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
11/30/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 13Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Berceo46%
×Draw24%
Peña Balsamaiso30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berceo
1.66
Peña Balsamaiso
1.29

Berceo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 66 away

creates per match

Berceo
1.41
Peña Balsamaiso
0.97

allows per match

Berceo
1.60
Peña Balsamaiso
1.91

finishing

Berceo+0.00on par
Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berceo ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Berceo or draw
70%
Berceo or Peña Balsamaiso
76%
Draw or Peña Balsamaiso
54%

Winning margin

Berceo wins by 2+
24%
Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Berceo 1+ goals
81%
Berceo 2+ goals
49%
Berceo 3+ goals
23%
Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
72%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
37%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Berceo (draw refunded)
61%
Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berceo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berceo attack 1.41 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.66

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Berceo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Berceo scores more
46%
level
24%
Peña Balsamaiso scores more
30%

Berceo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berceo vs Peña Balsamaiso

Peña Balsamaiso beat Berceo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.