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Berceo vs Cenicero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Berceo
Berceo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cenicero
Cenicero
1/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 16Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Berceo65%
×Draw19%
Cenicero15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berceo
2.21
Cenicero
0.97

Berceo creates 128% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Berceo
1.41
Cenicero
0.33

allows per match

Berceo
1.60
Cenicero
3.00

finishing

Berceo+0.00on par
Cenicero+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berceo ↓

Cenicero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Berceo or draw
85%
Berceo or Cenicero
81%
Draw or Cenicero
35%

Winning margin

Berceo wins by 2+
42%
Cenicero wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Berceo 1+ goals
89%
Berceo 2+ goals
65%
Berceo 3+ goals
38%
Cenicero 1+ goals
62%
Cenicero 2+ goals
25%
Cenicero 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Berceo (draw refunded)
81%
Cenicero (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berceo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

Cenicero away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berceo attack 1.41 + Cenicero defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Cenicero attack 0.33 + Berceo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Berceo scores more
65%
level
19%
Cenicero scores more
15%

Berceo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berceo vs Cenicero

Berceo beat Cenicero 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Isla in Logroño.