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Berazategui vs El Porvenir — Primera C 2026

Berazategui
Berazategui
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Porvenir
El Porvenir
8/29/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 24Norman Lee stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Berazategui48%
×Draw28%
El Porvenir24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berazategui
1.35
El Porvenir
0.86

Berazategui creates 57% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 118 away

creates per match

Berazategui
1.35
El Porvenir
0.79

allows per match

Berazategui
0.93
El Porvenir
1.34

finishing

Berazategui+0.00on par
El Porvenir+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berazategui ↓

El Porvenir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Berazategui or draw
76%
Berazategui or El Porvenir
72%
Draw or El Porvenir
52%

Winning margin

Berazategui wins by 2+
23%
El Porvenir wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Berazategui 1+ goals
74%
Berazategui 2+ goals
39%
Berazategui 3+ goals
15%
El Porvenir 1+ goals
58%
El Porvenir 2+ goals
21%
El Porvenir 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Berazategui (draw refunded)
67%
El Porvenir (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berazategui at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

El Porvenir away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.34 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berazategui attack 1.35 + El Porvenir defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

El Porvenir attack 0.79 + Berazategui defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Berazategui scores more
48%
level
28%
El Porvenir scores more
24%

Berazategui at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Berazategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Berazategui 0–0 El Porvenir

Berazategui and El Porvenir drew 0-0 in Primera C on August 29, 2025.

The match was played at Norman Lee stadium.