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Berazategui vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

Berazategui
Berazategui
FT
0 – 0
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
11/20/2021Primera CPrimera C · Championship - FinalsEstadio Centenario Dr. José Luis Meiszner

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Berazategui40%
×Draw28%
Dock Sud32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berazategui
1.23
Dock Sud
1.07

Berazategui creates 15% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 75 away

creates per match

Berazategui
1.33
Dock Sud
1.20

allows per match

Berazategui
0.95
Dock Sud
1.12

finishing

Berazategui+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berazategui ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Berazategui or draw
68%
Berazategui or Dock Sud
72%
Draw or Dock Sud
60%

Winning margin

Berazategui wins by 2+
17%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Berazategui 1+ goals
71%
Berazategui 2+ goals
35%
Berazategui 3+ goals
13%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
66%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
29%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Berazategui (draw refunded)
55%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berazategui at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berazategui attack 1.33 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + Berazategui defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Berazategui scores more
40%
level
28%
Dock Sud scores more
32%

Berazategui at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Berazategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berazategui vs Dock Sud

Berazategui and Dock Sud drew 0-0 in Primera C on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario Dr. José Luis Meiszner in Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires.