Berane 2–0 FK Mladost Podgorica: Result & Stats

Berane

FT

2 – 0

FK Mladost Podgorica

11/10/2021

Second League · Round 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Berane53%

×Draw26%

FK Mladost Podgorica21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeraneExpected goals in this matchFK Mladost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.83

Berane

1.51

FK Mladost Podgorica

0.83

Berane creates 82% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 18 away

1.19

creates per match

0.50

1.17

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Berane

1.19

FK Mladost Podgorica

0.50

allows per match

Berane

1.17

FK Mladost Podgorica

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berane+0.00on par

FK Mladost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berane ↓

FK Mladost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Berane or draw

79%

Berane or FK Mladost Podgorica

74%

Draw or FK Mladost Podgorica

47%

Winning margin

Berane wins by 2+

27%

FK Mladost Podgorica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Berane 1+ goals

78%

Berane 2+ goals

44%

Berane 3+ goals

19%

FK Mladost Podgorica 1+ goals

56%

FK Mladost Podgorica 2+ goals

20%

FK Mladost Podgorica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Berane (draw refunded)

72%

FK Mladost Podgorica (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.17 · 89 matches

FK Mladost Podgorica away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berane attack 1.19 + FK Mladost Podgorica defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.51

FK Mladost Podgorica attack 0.50 + Berane defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Berane scores more

53%

level

26%

FK Mladost Podgorica scores more

21%

Berane at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Berane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff